South African Farmers See Record Harvests and Growing Confidence Despite Challenges

At the recent Agbiz Media Day, industry leaders reflected on a year of resilience, strong harvests, and emerging opportunities in South African agriculture. Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff and chief economist Wandile Sihlobo highlighted sectoral confidence, export growth, and infrastructure developments shaping the road ahead.

Sihlobo reported that the Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) rose five points in the fourth quarter to 67, well above the 50-point optimism threshold. Confidence within the farming sector remains high, and agricultural GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to surpass the previous quarter. Key drivers include strong harvests, cost efficiency, and sustained global demand.

Despite a delayed start to the season, South Africa recorded significant outcomes. The country achieved its second-largest maize crop, a record soybean harvest, and strong fruit and vegetable production. Although class white maize (WM1) quality fell from 92% to around 66%, financial results remained stable.

Investment trends reflect this confidence. Tractor sales increased by 10%, while combined harvester sales rose 8%. Agricultural exports grew 10% in the first three quarters, reaching $11.7 billion, with the third quarter alone exceeding $4.7 billion. Growth was supported by a temporary 90-day tariff suspension in the United States, improved port operations, and high global grain demand.

Agriculture remains a major employer in South Africa. Approximately 920,000 people work in primary agriculture, with another 350,000 in the grain value chain. Sihlobo highlighted the broader social impact, noting that about 1.4 million South Africans directly benefit from agriculture. Factoring in average family size, the sector supports millions more through household income and food security.

The livestock sector, which constitutes roughly half of the farming economy, faces challenges including foot-and-mouth disease, high feed costs, and falling meat and soybean prices. Vaccination coverage for 12.1 million cattle, particularly in communal areas, is a key concern for 2026. On a positive note, soil moisture remains healthy across summer rainfall regions, with above-average rainfall forecast through March 2026, supporting stable crop and pasture conditions.

Boshoff noted that policy uncertainty, misinformation following the Expropriation Act, crop protection activism, US trade tensions, and complex employment equity targets created challenges during the year. He emphasized that consultation and stakeholder engagement are critical to ensuring practical and achievable policy measures.

Infrastructure improvements are supporting sector resilience. Durban’s Pier 2 joint venture, with 51% Transnet and 49% private sector ownership, received court approval, with operations scheduled to start in January 2026. Cape Town port performance has improved with new equipment, anti-swing gantries, and better recovery from wind disruptions.

Diaan Venter, Agbiz researcher, stressed the need to shift freight from road to rail to reduce environmental and infrastructure costs. Heavy trucks cause up to 125,000 times more road damage than passenger vehicles over their lifetime, with external costs including pollution and road maintenance 11 times higher than rail. Despite this, road freight remains dominant due to its flexibility and faster turnaround, creating a path dependency that imposes long-term costs on the sector.

Industry leaders at the Agbiz roundtable emphasized resilience, strategic investment, and logistics reform as key factors for continued growth. With strong harvests, rising confidence, and infrastructure improvements, the sector is well positioned to sustain economic impact, create jobs, and strengthen food security across South Africa.