Commodity Price Outlook for Crops and Livestock

South Africa’s agricultural sector is navigating a season filled with both challenges and cautious optimism. From crop harvests affected by erratic weather to livestock markets influenced by global trends and local production costs, the commodity price outlook for the remainder of 2025 is critical for farmers, retailers, and households alike. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect across key agricultural commodities.

Grains and Oilseeds

Maize, South Africa’s staple crop, has seen some price stability despite initial concerns over the El Niño weather pattern. While late summer rains helped improve yields in certain provinces, parts of the Free State and North West experienced reduced output. Local maize prices are expected to remain firm, supported by export demand from neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

Wheat prices remain under pressure from imports, especially as global prices ease due to better-than-expected harvests in major producing countries. However, the weak rand and high shipping costs could still keep domestic wheat products on the expensive side. Sunflower and soybean farmers are likely to benefit from steady global demand, although input costs—especially fuel and fertiliser—continue to squeeze margins.

Rice and Other Staples

While South Africa imports most of its rice, global developments have a direct impact on local prices. India’s continued restrictions on rice exports have caused international prices to rise sharply. As a result, consumers may continue to see higher prices on supermarket shelves for rice and rice-based products heading into the festive season.

Fresh Produce

Fruit and vegetable growers have had a mixed season. Citrus exports are performing well, particularly to the EU and China, despite logistical challenges at ports. However, load shedding and rising labour costs have affected production and storage for a range of produce including tomatoes, onions, and leafy greens. Locally, prices at fresh produce markets may fluctuate more than usual, particularly during peak heat periods or transport delays.

Livestock

Beef prices remain high in South Africa, driven by tight cattle supply and elevated feed costs. Drought conditions in grazing regions have forced some farmers to cull herds earlier than planned, creating short-term supply imbalances. While demand for beef remains strong, especially during holidays and school breaks, the high price tag may see some consumers turning to more affordable protein options.

Poultry prices are expected to remain relatively stable but slightly elevated due to continued pressure from avian flu outbreaks and increased feed costs. The sector has also been impacted by electricity disruptions and biosecurity measures, which have raised operating costs for producers.

Pork prices, meanwhile, are struggling to gain momentum. Imports from Europe and Brazil are creating stiff competition for local producers, and disease management remains a key issue. That said, pork still offers a cost-effective alternative to beef for many households.

Dairy

The local dairy sector continues to recover slowly following previous years of input cost pressures and milk shortages. Prices for milk, cheese, and butter are likely to remain stable, with slight increases due to higher production and transport costs. Consumer demand remains solid, but rising prices could dampen growth in the sector unless energy and feed prices ease.

• Upside pressures: A weaker rand, elevated input costs, and global supply constraints could keep food prices high.
• Downside risks: Improved weather conditions and better logistics performance could help ease some inflationary pressure on food prices.
• What to watch: Load shedding patterns, global shipping routes, and regional trade developments will all play a role in shaping the months ahead.

For South African farmers, agribusinesses, and consumers, 2025 remains a year of careful watching and adaptation. Diversification, smart procurement, and proactive risk management will be key in navigating price movements in both crops and livestock markets.