South African Farmers Adjust Crop Plans Amid Climate Variability and Rising Costs

Recent years of weather variability, driven by El Niño and La Niña climate patterns, combined with rising production costs and lower investment returns, have made South African farmers more cautious in their planting decisions. In marginal areas, these pressures are particularly pronounced, prompting growers to adapt their strategies to manage risk and optimise returns.

“The 2026 crop intentions highlight an agriculture sector strategically adapting to new realities,” said Marguerite Pienaar, agricultural economist at Grain SA. “Farmers are managing risk by choosing crops that offer stronger market potential and resilience under unpredictable climate conditions. Water availability remains a decisive factor, with producers monitoring reservoir levels and soil moisture before finalising planting plans.”

Looking ahead to the 2025/26 summer crop season, there is potential for South Africa to strengthen its position as a leading grain and oilseed producer in Southern Africa, provided the weather is favourable and global markets remain stable. Sunflowers, in particular, are seen as a resilient option. Hendrik van Staden, head of field crops for Africa and the Middle East at Syngenta Seeds, noted that sunflower’s ability to produce consistent yields under adverse weather conditions makes it an attractive choice, especially for dryland farming.

“Sunflowers provide a good alternative to other grain crops in areas where climate unpredictability may affect maize or other cereals,” van Staden explained. He expects a slight increase in sunflower hectares despite market and environmental pressures, driven by growing demand for high-oil sunflower varieties, which offer premium prices and additional income streams. Soil profiles with sufficient subsurface moisture can enable early planting, while late rains or drought conditions may influence crop selection. He emphasised that selecting the right hybrid is crucial for both yield and profitability.

High-quality hybrid seeds reduce risks associated with pests, disease, and climate variability. “We recommend planting a hybrid package and staggering planting dates to manage risks, particularly Sclerotinia,” van Staden said.

Farmers are also increasingly focusing on sustainability and diversification. “Producers are aiming for balance, matching market signals with climate-smart practices and aligning crop choices with resource constraints,” Pienaar added.

Despite these positive trends, sunflower hectarage may see a slight decline. According to the Crop Estimate Committee’s ninth production estimate, sunflower production is projected to remain around 708,300 tonnes, with planting intentions indicating a decrease of approximately 25,000 hectares compared to the previous season. This represents a 4.43% reduction, influenced partly by Sclerotinia challenges in the 2024/25 season.

Average sunflower yields, however, have improved to 1.27 t/ha from 1.19 t/ha the previous season. Exceptional yields of 3.5 t/ha and 4.4 t/ha were recorded during the Grain SA Grow for Gold National Yield Competition, demonstrating the potential returns when sunflower is treated as a primary crop and planted optimally. Yield scenarios indicate that even under low-yield conditions, total stock will support market prices, with exports and imports adjusted accordingly to balance supply.

Supply and demand dynamics are evolving. Total sunflower stock for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 789,157 tonnes, with commercial deliveries for the 2025/26 season already exceeding last year’s figures. The first deep-sea export of 15,000 tonnes of sunflower seed was shipped to the Congo in September 2025, while imports from Argentina are expected later in the season, driven by higher oil content and competitive pricing. Additional imports from Botswana have also been received, supporting industry needs despite initial permit challenges.

Approximately 700,000 tonnes of sunflower are projected to be pressed locally for oil and oilcake, with total stocks adjusted to 77,863 tonnes for the current season. Export projections are around 220 tonnes, with imports estimated at 4,000 tonnes, reflecting a dynamic market shaped by local production, weather conditions, and global trade factors.

South African farmers continue to navigate these uncertainties with strategic crop choices, hybrid seed investment, and climate-smart practices. By prioritising resilient crops like sunflower and monitoring environmental and market conditions closely, the sector aims to sustain production, safeguard livelihoods, and maintain South Africa’s position as a leading grain and oilseed producer in the region.